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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 44

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(7:33) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 28 yards to LA 16, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.64 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -1.54 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth +0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model