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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 40

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(13:39) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 34 yards to MIN 6, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-29-C.Goodwin.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.76 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP