Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 84

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(10:51) (Punt formation) 2-B.Colquitt punts 32 yards to MIN 48, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-27-J.Kearse. Dallas's Jeff Heath has a shoulder injury, his return is questionable.

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 84, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model