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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 2

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(:06) 33-D.Cook right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL-99-A.Woods was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +3.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 2, worth +0.38 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model