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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 47

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(4:43) (Punt formation) 2-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to DAL 6, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-27-J.Kearse.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.12 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model