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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 45

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Kearse at MIN -4. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.42 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.05 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.00 EP