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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 48

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(6:58) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to MIN 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.34 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model