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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Monday 2019-11-11 · 20:15 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

SEA
33.4%
SF
66.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF defense: -0.316 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • SF on 3 more days rest than SEA
  • SEA defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.168 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.224 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SEA 23
–
SF 28
Projected margin: SF by 5 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

SEA

Delano Hill S Questionable Elbow
Phil Haynes G Questionable Ankle

SF

Robbie Gould K Doubtful right Quadricep
George Kittle TE Doubtful Knee
Mike McGlinchey T Questionable Knee
Raheem Mostert RB Questionable Knee
Joe Staley T Questionable Fibula
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 27
–
SF 24

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:24 FG SF (8:24) 5-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SEA 0 – SF 3
  • Q1 02:07 TD SF (2:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SEA 6. 6-yac SEA 0 – SF 9
  • Q2 02:57 TD SEA (2:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 14 for -9 yards (91-J.Reed). FUMBLES (91-J.Reed) [91-J.Reed], RECOVERED by SEA-90-J.Clowney at SF 10. 90-J.Clowney for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – SF 10
  • Q3 04:44 TD SEA (4:44) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 48-J.Hollister for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – SF 10
  • Q3 01:46 TD SEA (1:46) 32-C.Carson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – SF 10
  • Q4 12:12 TD SF (12:12) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 25 for -10 yards (sack split by 91-A.Armstead and 24-K.Williams). FUMBLES (91-A.Armstead) [24-K.Williams], recovered by SEA-65-G.Ifedi at SEA 23. 65-G.Ifedi to SEA 18 for -5 yards (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), RECOVERED by SF-99-D.Buckner at SEA 12. 99-D.Buckner for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 21 – SF 16
  • Q4 06:21 FG SF (6:21) 5-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SEA 21 – SF 21
  • Q4 01:49 FG SEA (1:49) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 24 – SF 21
  • Q4 00:06 FG SF (:06) 5-C.McLaughlin 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SEA 24 – SF 24
  • Q5 00:04 FG SEA (:04) 5-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 27 – SF 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 86%

    (8:24) 5-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:24) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to SF 17, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:40) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to SF 24, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 26 for 2 yards (57-C.Barton).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:38) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to SEA 25, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-31-R.Mostert. PENALTY on SF-31-R.Mostert, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 25.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 13 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 50%

    (10:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 34 yards to SF 8, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-R.James Jr. pushed ob at SF 8 for no gain (28-U.Amadi).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (7:18) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to SEA 17, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (3:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:59) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 38 yards to SEA 41, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SF 39 for 20 yards (29-J.Tartt).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 72%

    (10:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 19-D.Samuel.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 26%

    (7:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 22 yards to SF 30, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:14) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (10:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to SF 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 16 for no gain (23-N.Thorpe). PENALTY on SEA-23-N.Thorpe, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 16.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 90%

    (6:21) 5-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 2 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 81%

    (1:49) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.