4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 5

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:45) (Field Goal formation) 7-Y.Koo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.34 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP