Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 80

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(3:07) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to ATL 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner MUFFS catch, touched at ATL 27, and recovers at ATL 29. 38-K.Barner to ATL 29 for no gain (18-D.White).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.75 EP
70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 80, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model