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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 50

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(:53) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep right to 13-J.Wright to ATL 31 for 19 yards (27-D.Kazee) [97-G.Jarrett].

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.81 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 50, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model