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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 35

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(11:38) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at ATL 47 for -12 yards (99-A.Clayborn).

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.07 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model