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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 44

Atlanta Falcons 20 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:43) (Run formation) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to CAR 43 for 1 yard (59-L.Kuechly; 95-D.Poe).

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.82 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model