4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 41

Atlanta Falcons 26 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:56) (Pass formation) 9-R.Allen punts 32 yards to CAR 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.27 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model