4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 13

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 26

What Actually Happened

(13:04) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Slye 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.51 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 13, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model