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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 11

Atlanta Falcons 26 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:05) (Field Goal formation) 7-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. Penalty on CAR-26-D.Jackson, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.41 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model