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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 29

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to ATL 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner MUFFS catch, and recovers at ATL 21.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.35 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -1.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 28, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model