Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 62

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 16

(6:36) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 44 yards to BUF 18, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.75 EP
69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 62, worth -3.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model