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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 33

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:09) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.11 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -2.10 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP