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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 30

What Actually Happened

(4:51) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 59 yards to BUF 7, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 12 for 5 yards (35-W.Aikens).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.79 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 24, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model