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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 58

Miami Dolphins 20 – Buffalo Bills 37

What Actually Happened

(5:26) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 11-D.Parker pushed ob at BUF 13 for 45 yards (21-J.Poyer).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.11 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 58, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model