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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 4

Miami Dolphins 20 – Buffalo Bills 37

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 14-R.Fitzpatrick right guard to BUF 4 for no gain (49-T.Edmunds; 21-J.Poyer).

The Three Options

GO +2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.41 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 4, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -1.01 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model