Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 89

Buffalo Bills 37 – Miami Dolphins 20

(2:09) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to MIA 40, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 48-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.62 EP
43% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 89, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model