Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 6

(:29) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 42 yards to BUF 19, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.19 EP
75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -2.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model