Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 80

Detroit Lions 7 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to DAL 23, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-T.Austin to DAL 17 for -6 yards (35-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on DAL-26-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.10 EP
70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model