Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 73

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Detroit Lions 7

(11:17) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to DET 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 39-J.Agnew pushed ob at DAL 45 for 32 yards (89-B.Jarwin).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.45 EP
60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 73, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model