Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 43

Detroit Lions 21 – Dallas Cowboys 27

(13:45) 6-S.Martin punts 27 yards to DAL 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.74 EP
68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -2.03 EP

KICK -0.26 EP

50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
50% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model