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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 40

Dallas Cowboys 35 – Detroit Lions 27

What Actually Happened

(3:52) 6-C.Jones punts 26 yards to DET 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 17-M.Hall.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.28 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP