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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 64

Detroit Lions 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to DAL 12, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-T.Austin to DAL 14 for 2 yards (30-D.Virgin).

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.43 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 64, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 22, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model