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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Denver Broncos
4th & 1 at the 7
Denver Broncos 10 – Minnesota Vikings 0
What Actually Happened
(14:13) 14-C.Sutton left end to MIN 6 for 1 yard (34-A.Sendejo).
The Three Options
GO
+3.32 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.41 EP
- 37% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 7, worth -0.30 EP
KICK
+1.43 EP
- 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT
-0.49 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
