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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 29

Denver Broncos 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 8-B.McManus 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.13 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP