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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 23

Denver Broncos 20 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.08 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model