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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Denver Broncos 23

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 33-D.Cook up the middle to MIN 36 for 2 yards (98-M.Purcell).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model