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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 25

Denver Broncos 23 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 8-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.29 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model