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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 81

Denver Broncos 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 6-C.Wadman punts 36 yards to MIN 45, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-42-C.Kreiter.

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 81, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 38, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model