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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 45

Houston Texans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(:10) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 35 yards to BAL 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 16-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.59 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -3.29 EP
KICK -2.04 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +0.89 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.69 EP
PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP