Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 62

Houston Texans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(6:47) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 36 yards to BAL 26, Center-46-J.Weeks. 16-D.Thomas to BAL 30 for 4 yards (41-Z.Cunningham; 57-B.Scarlett).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.67 EP
71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model