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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 53

Houston Texans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-K.Stills pushed ob at BAL 44 for 9 yards (24-M.Peters).

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.16 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 53, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.47 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model