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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 16

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:56) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.41 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 16, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 26, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model