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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 28

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:35) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.93 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model