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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 37

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Koch pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to HOU 39 for -2 yards (33-A.Moore).

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.96 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model