Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 76

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

(4:01) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to JAX 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.53 EP
57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 76, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model