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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 63

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(3:14) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to IND 15, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.81 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 63, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model