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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 39

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 80-C.Rogers [41-J.Allen].

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.34 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP