Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 57

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(11:39) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to IND 7, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-55-L.McCray.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.76 EP
68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model