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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 1

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(8:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 83-M.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.94 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 1, worth +0.53 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model