Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(:18) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to IND 30, Center-46-M.Orzech. 58-B.Okereke MUFFS catch, touched at IND 30, RECOVERED by JAX-54-D.Payne at IND 29. 54-D.Payne to IND 29 for no gain (30-G.Odum).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model