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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 28

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 4-J.Lambo 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.69 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model