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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(12:47) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to IND 22, Center-46-M.Orzech. 80-C.Rogers ran ob at IND 30 for 8 yards (26-J.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.43 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 28, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model