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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 14

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 4-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.27 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model